The target is not Turkey, but global economy

  • 14 Ağustos 2018 Salı

U.S. President Donald Trump read out the new National Security Strategy document on the last days of 2017.

Back then on Dec. 21, 2017, I had written in this column that “the U.S. National Security Strategy document, which President Donald Trump read out like an election declaration, tells us both about what has been happening in our region for a while and what will happen in the economy and foreign politics in the coming days. In fact, this document and the way it was presented shows that the U.S. has come to ‘anxiously’ accept the fact that its absolute economic and political power of the previous century is on the decline.”

This state of “anxiety” was stemming from the fact that the institutions and rules of the economic and political system that was established under U.S. leadership after World War II were coming to be dysfunctional. Unlike in the past, money and trade systems and relevant institutions were no longer able to intervene in the world trade order and the economy in favor of the U.S. and regulate the system.

Bretton-Woods institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) rapidly lost their reputation and efficiency in the eyes of developing countries in the subversive process that followed the 2008 crisis.

These countries acknowledged that the more they acted independently from these institutions that established the U.S. hegemony and the narratives they developed, the newer prosperity and development path they moved toward. In fact, the same was true for politics.

The U.S.’ hegemonic strategy and the political and diplomatic paradigm that constituted this strategy were also quickly losing legitimacy. Henry Kissinger puts this (old) strategy, suggesting that the U.S. has the best administration system in the world and the rest of humanity can achieve peace and welfare only if they abandon traditional diplomacy and accept its respect for international law and democracy.

These remarks are a clear threat to the world, meaning that you will either accept U.S. hegemony or you will be far from peace and welfare. Madeleine Albright, one of the “female” “democrat” secretaries of state of the U.S., stated during Bill Clinton’s era, “If we have to use force, it is because we are America.”

Actually, she was paraphrasing what Kissinger had said. This thesis by Kissinger would make history as the “Kissinger Doctrine,” meaning “regarding its own interests as the common interests of mankind and wanting everything to be subject to itself, and if not, using force.”

The new U.S. “security paper” created after Trump took office has expanded the periphery that the U.S. regards as a threat to its “security” and included countries which reject the absolute hegemony of Bretton-Woods economic institutions and politically criticize the U.N.’s structure and want it to be changed. This is apart from countries that have nuclear power outside of NATO.

As such, not only Turkey, but also new EU members and all the Asian Pacific economies that have climbed to the level of developed countries are a threat to the U.S.

The new U.S. security document views Russia and China as a threat not only because their economies and technological power are growing outside the U.S.-controlled and U.S.-imposed monetary system. So, even though the security document clearly mentions China and Russia, all economically growing countries that take steps outside the economic order established by the U.S. after World War II have come to be an indirect threat to the U.S.

However, the opposite is true as well, in that, the U.S. is a great threat to everyone, first for all developing countries and then for countries, apart from few of them like Israel, that do not regard absolute U.S. interests as their own interests.

Of course, there is something strange in the security document. The U.S. accepts the trade and monetary system established after World War II and its institutions as directly its own national institutions and systems. And it sees countries that grow outside its own control as countries that grow by using their own institutions, and that threaten the U.S. economy. For this reason, more often in the recent period, it not only controls the global dollar cycle through swift application, but also restricts it, delays cash flow and prevents the “natural flow” of world trade through economic sanctions and customs restrictions.

In fact, the U.S.’ current crisis with Turkey is not about its detained “men,” but a war that the U.S. has waged against the entire world. For now, this war continues with global banditry like violating all the consensuses of humanity on generally-accepted issues in an indecent manner such as protectionism and global warming and preventing liberal trade and economic cycle if they go against its interests. Of course, however, the end – as it is seen in all human history – will not be good for the one who has declared this war to mankind.

There are many things that Turkey and other countries can do against the economic war that has been declared and that they can stop this attack. Before anything else, this infringement will bring a quest for new rules and institutions for the entire world.

First, the Bretton-Woods monetary order and its institutions, the overall paradigm, will become void. All countries apart from the U.S. will be more determined about a new monetary and trade order, which will bring up new alliances, new monetary unions and trade agreements.

Turkey has all the instruments and economic dynamics that will not allow this currency shock to grow into an economic crisis. This, at the same time, is a new state of balance for the economy and an opportunity for renewal and way out based on this balance. Of course, while I am making these statements, I do not claim that all of what we are experiencing will not leave behind damage.

However, let us note that this is an unprecedented economic war not only against Turkey, but also on all humanity. Turkey is the center country of new political/economic order both in the region – Europe and Asia – and all over the world. In this sense, Turkey’s quest for new alliances is not utopic, but realpolitik-driven. Undoubtedly, the establishment of a new world order in this context is on the horizon.

Following the July 15 coup attempt, we have developed a great consensus to establish a new political-economic structure. This grand national reconciliation, crowned with a new presidential system on June 24, is both a major political transformation that will set an example for other developing countries and an opportunity for economic renewal.

Rest assured that what the U.S. is doing will not lead to the consequences it expects. Quite the contrary, it will give us a great opportunity for economic renewal in terms of both understanding and physical. The whole world will see this with the steps we will take in the economy in the coming days.